Founder, operator, economist. Co-founder of Lightspark, co-creator of Libra at Meta, founder of the MIT Cryptoeconomics Lab. Building and writing at the intersection of AI, verification, digital assets and markets.https://catalini.com/en-ushttps://catalini.com/notes/frontier-labs-smartphone-outcome/https://catalini.com/notes/frontier-labs-smartphone-outcome/SOTA is the iPhone: 1/5 of the tokens, 4/5 of the profits.Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/expert-verification-closes-the-loop/https://catalini.com/notes/expert-verification-closes-the-loop/The dynamic we predicted in February: verification by top experts is the missing piece that closes the automation loop — and each closed loop pushes the frontier further.Fri, 03 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://open.spotify.com/episode/3TNVy6Wxz2u1lbnAzlWSu5https://open.spotify.com/episode/3TNVy6Wxz2u1lbnAzlWSu5What Libra’s arc teaches about Open Standard’s OUSD and collectively governed stablecoin rails.Fri, 03 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/open-standard-stablecoin-race/https://catalini.com/writing/open-standard-stablecoin-race/Stablecoins aren’t a profit center. So the future belongs not to a dominant issuer but to 140 rivals who agree on one neutral standard, and share the upside.Tue, 30 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/ousd-neutral-stablecoin-bet/https://catalini.com/notes/ousd-neutral-stablecoin-bet/More than 140 fierce competitors just agreed to back the same stablecoin — Open USD, positioned not as anyone's product but as neutral infrastructure for payments, trading, and the internet economy.Tue, 30 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcPIzPSG02chttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcPIzPSG02cAnything AI can measure, it will automate — the dividing line for every job and firm.Tue, 30 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/intelligence-wants-to-be-free/https://catalini.com/writing/intelligence-wants-to-be-free/Decentralized intelligence will not win in the same format as the one we’re being served by the large foundation labs.Sat, 27 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://open.spotify.com/episode/25R8So9alj6pOW9h7Rh2X4https://open.spotify.com/episode/25R8So9alj6pOW9h7Rh2X4The unexpected economics of AGI: why measurability decides what gets automated, and trust decides what gets deployed.Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://open.spotify.com/episode/5gTlGmgwm8yr89AKfcHR4xhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/5gTlGmgwm8yr89AKfcHR4xVerification — not intelligence — is the bottleneck of the AI economy.Tue, 23 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8J1nZonrDFs&t=504shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8J1nZonrDFs&t=504sA talk on Some Simple Economics of AGI: the measurability gap and the verification bottleneck.Tue, 23 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96R-4bY5198https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96R-4bY5198Verification is the bottleneck of the AI economy.Tue, 23 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZtWM9HhIgEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZtWM9HhIgEThe unexpected economics of AGI, for operators deploying AI inside companies.Tue, 23 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://open.spotify.com/episode/63EzYpREJ8jWrt05QUIN0Hhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/63EzYpREJ8jWrt05QUIN0HFrom Libra to the economics of AGI: how digital money and machine intelligence converge.Sun, 21 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDM07mDsTL0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDM07mDsTL0From Libra's lessons to the economics of AGI — money, verification, and what comes next.Sun, 21 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/nadellas-test/https://catalini.com/writing/nadellas-test/Nadella defined what decides whether your company and job stay defensible as AI improves. The economics says it holds on a single condition. One his post left out.Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/nadellas-test-thread/https://catalini.com/notes/nadellas-test-thread/Satya Nadella defined what decides whether your company and job stay defensible as AI improves. The economics says it holds on a single condition — one his post left out.Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/the-moral-of-fable/https://catalini.com/writing/the-moral-of-fable/Anthropic quietly rationed the one domain where AI compounds fastest. Its fix made the fence visible, but didn’t move it.Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/mastery-learning-rate/https://catalini.com/notes/mastery-learning-rate/Finding out what you're good at used to require the right mentor, firm, or zip code. AI collapses all three into a chat window — what's left is finding the domain where your learning rate is steepest.Thu, 11 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/self-improving-ai-beginning-of-infinity/https://catalini.com/writing/self-improving-ai-beginning-of-infinity/The moral of the Fable: verification sets the speed, and the labs draw the borders.Wed, 10 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.pressreader.com/foryou?popupArticleId=281870125106551https://www.pressreader.com/foryou?popupArticleId=281870125106551What 17th-century maritime commerce teaches about liability when AI agents transact on our behalf.Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hM3Qc5zJk0ohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hM3Qc5zJk0oAgentic payments are the Wild West: what it takes to make machine commerce trustworthy.Fri, 29 May 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/stablecoins-break-banking-model/https://catalini.com/notes/stablecoins-break-banking-model/Banks take deposits at zero and lend at five. The one thing that breaks the model is someone offering to pay interest — and stablecoin issuers earn ~4% on the Treasuries backing their tokens.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/banks-dye-stablecoins-pink/https://catalini.com/writing/banks-dye-stablecoins-pink/The banking lobby’s demand for an "airtight prohibition" on stablecoin yield is a margarine law. History says the airtight prohibition causes the substitution it fears.Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://a16zcrypto.substack.com/p/agents-are-starting-to-operate-realhttps://a16zcrypto.substack.com/p/agents-are-starting-to-operate-realAs AI agents begin operating real systems, the question shifts from capability to control — identity, payments, and verifiable trust for machine actors.Sat, 18 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/agentic-ai-plimsoll-line/https://catalini.com/notes/agentic-ai-plimsoll-line/In 1876 Britain made shipowners paint a line on every hull. Shipping scaled on a mark anyone could verify — trust in AI agents must be hardcoded the same way.Sat, 18 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/midgley-productivity-externalities/https://catalini.com/notes/midgley-productivity-externalities/Leaded gasoline and CFCs were obviously good by the productivity standard. 'Productivity-raising input' describes a transition — not its externalities.Sat, 18 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/software-is-eating-labor/https://catalini.com/notes/software-is-eating-labor/'Software is eating the world' got a sequel: labor becomes software. Everyone is staring at the models; the actual bottleneck is verification.Fri, 17 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://open.spotify.com/episode/36dRh1CpIoPFwRky6mR9iehttps://open.spotify.com/episode/36dRh1CpIoPFwRky6mR9ieThe measurability gap, and why verification becomes the new scarcity as execution gets cheap.Thu, 26 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5qhFnv0UhAhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5qhFnv0UhAYour job will be automated — verification is the skill that survives.Thu, 26 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/llms-wagon-wheel-bar/https://catalini.com/notes/llms-wagon-wheel-bar/Silicon Valley won because ideas leaked across company boundaries at a bar in Mountain View. LLMs surface connections no individual or discipline has the institutional memory to notice.Tue, 24 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/trojan-horse-externality/https://catalini.com/notes/trojan-horse-externality/'Cognitive surrender' is the psychology. The economics: the cost to verify is rising while the cost to generate collapses. Humans aren't giving up — they're priced out of checking.Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/karpathys-throwaway-caveat/https://catalini.com/notes/karpathys-throwaway-caveat/Karpathy described the limit on trillion-dollar autonomous systems as an aside about an overnight hyperparameter script: objective metrics are the perfect fit — and everything else isn't.Sun, 22 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/generation-scales-verification-doesnt/https://catalini.com/notes/generation-scales-verification-doesnt/Verifying whether a paper is a breakthrough requires roughly the same expertise as producing one. AI science is the extreme case: infinite generation, fixed verification bandwidth.Sat, 21 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.substack.com/p/software-eats-the-brokeragehttps://catalini.substack.com/p/software-eats-the-brokerageAI is collapsing the cost of running finance while degrading the documents it trusts. Cryptographic rails solve both—and finally make four billion investors worth serving.Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/lowell-mills-verification-infrastructure/https://catalini.com/notes/lowell-mills-verification-infrastructure/In 1842, Lowell's textile mills scaled looms faster than weavers could check them. The same bottleneck is now the binding constraint on the AI economy.Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://open.spotify.com/episode/3IWkfcwD8S5wRw4rm92Sarhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/3IWkfcwD8S5wRw4rm92SarWhat individuals should do as AI collapses the cost of execution — rebuild expertise faster than the market rate.Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/babysitting-the-slop/https://catalini.com/writing/babysitting-the-slop/Generating the output is free. Knowing when it’s lying is the moat. Why verification—not intelligence—is the binding constraint on the AI economy.Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/measurability-biased-technical-change/https://catalini.com/notes/measurability-biased-technical-change/Skill-biased technical change is dead. The fault line is no longer how educated you are — it's whether your output can be measured. If it can, it will be industrialized.Sun, 15 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/wrong-side-of-the-net/https://catalini.com/notes/wrong-side-of-the-net/A machine that never tires screams substitution. But the same simulation capability is the most powerful training technology ever built — a decade of mastery compressed into a year.Sun, 15 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/software-eats-the-brokerage/https://catalini.com/writing/software-eats-the-brokerage/AI is collapsing the cost of running finance while degrading the documents it trusts. Cryptographic rails solve both—and finally make four billion investors worth servingTue, 10 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/the-ai-was-mining-crypto/https://catalini.com/notes/the-ai-was-mining-crypto/Nobody asked it to. Nobody prompted it. An agent probed internal networks, diverted GPU capacity to mine crypto, and opened a reverse SSH tunnel — as an instrumental side effect of RL optimization.Sat, 07 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/weird-employees-200-a-month/https://catalini.com/notes/weird-employees-200-a-month/You've just been told you have superpowers — what do you build? Unpacking the AGI paper with a16z crypto: automation costs are collapsing; verification costs aren't.Thu, 05 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv3IqA4cLEkhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv3IqA4cLEkAI just gave you superpowers: how individuals compound them before the market catches up.Thu, 05 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.arewecookedhq.com/p/are-we-cooked-q-and-a-with-christianhttps://www.arewecookedhq.com/p/are-we-cooked-q-and-a-with-christianA Q&A on the economics of AGI: why verification, not intelligence, becomes the binding constraint as the cost of execution collapses.Wed, 04 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/labor-data-not-contradictory/https://catalini.com/notes/labor-data-not-contradictory/Juniors struggling, top performers thriving — both true at once. This is measurability-biased technical change working through the labor market.Fri, 27 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/smaller-flatter-teams/https://catalini.com/notes/smaller-flatter-teams/Intelligence tools paired with smaller and flatter teams are changing what it means to build and run a company — and junior roles vanish before people can build expertise.Thu, 26 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/some-simple-economics-of-agi-thread/https://catalini.com/notes/some-simple-economics-of-agi-thread/The full 58-post walkthrough of the paper: what AI will actually automate, what stays human, and why the dividing line is measurability, not routine.Tue, 24 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kp9MPbwLP4https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kp9MPbwLP4Episode 1: open versus closed money networks.Thu, 05 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/ai-fintech-banking-charter/https://catalini.com/notes/ai-fintech-banking-charter/AI commoditizes software. The charter is the scarce permission layer: if everyone can generate code, the moat is who gets to hold money.Tue, 03 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://open.spotify.com/episode/6ydlRejDJXTf7tUh5gwQuFhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/6ydlRejDJXTf7tUh5gwQuFWhy closed corporate blockchains lose to open networks: cooperate on the platform, compete on products.Wed, 14 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdC0_cHqdvMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdC0_cHqdvMThe case for open networks over closed corporate rails, in sixteen minutes.Wed, 14 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/breakthroughs-are-removed-frictions/https://catalini.com/notes/breakthroughs-are-removed-frictions/To every founder asking what to build next in crypto, AI, or fintech: the invisible, boring standards are what let thousands of new products exist in the first place.Tue, 13 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/s/The-Most-Valuable-AI-Tool-in-Fintech-Isnt-an-LLM-Its-a-Banking-Charter-Christian-Catalini.pdfhttps://catalini.com/s/The-Most-Valuable-AI-Tool-in-Fintech-Isnt-an-LLM-Its-a-Banking-Charter-Christian-Catalini.pdfAI commoditizes software, so the scarce layer in fintech becomes regulatory permission: the charter decides who gets to hold money.Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://sloanreview.mit.edu/issue/2026-winter/https://sloanreview.mit.edu/issue/2026-winter/What the new stablecoin rulebook means for operators and corporate strategy.Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/how-stablecoins-are-actually-used/https://catalini.com/notes/how-stablecoins-are-actually-used/Volume has doubled year-over-year, but it isn't retail — it's B2B settlement and internal transfers: what banks and traditional rails do, but 24/7, faster, and cheaper.Fri, 19 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/banks-love-stablecoins/https://catalini.com/writing/banks-love-stablecoins/Banks worry stablecoins will drain deposits. Data says they won’t. The real value is replacing settlement rails built on duct tape and COBOL with a dollar that works.Wed, 17 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/banks-stop-worrying-thread/https://catalini.com/notes/banks-stop-worrying-thread/When we announced Libra, the reaction from the global financial establishment was 'energetic.' The existential fear: stablecoins would break banks' control of deposits and payments.Wed, 17 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/crypto-ready-to-be-boring/https://catalini.com/writing/crypto-ready-to-be-boring/In the age of AI, money needs identity. How World and stablecoins are building the boring infrastructure to separate humans from bots and scale the economy.Fri, 12 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/last-mile-frictions-disappearing/https://catalini.com/notes/last-mile-frictions-disappearing/Permissionless networks are finally doing the obvious, boring thing: connecting to a Visa card. Once the rails work, the next problem is distinguishing machine money from human money.Fri, 12 Dec 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4TQF-nMWZYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4TQF-nMWZYWide-ranging conversation on stablecoins and payments infrastructure.Thu, 20 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.koreaherald.com/article/10617819https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10617819Proprietary CorpChains versus open networks: the platform war over the rails of the global economy.Tue, 18 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/gold-bitcoin-analogy-ends/https://catalini.com/notes/gold-bitcoin-analogy-ends/Both are scarce assets whose value rests on social consensus — but unlike gold, Bitcoin has yet to earn the low-correlation role of a crisis hedge.Mon, 17 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/genius-act-forces-a-choice/https://catalini.com/notes/genius-act-forces-a-choice/The Act does more than clarify rules: treat stablecoins as a simple utility, or as the new open architecture for payments — against a $187 billion private tax on the economy.Thu, 06 Nov 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/open-always-eventually-wins/https://catalini.com/notes/open-always-eventually-wins/Money is the last closed network. The next step is neutral, permissionless rails anyone can build on — because open compounds builders, accelerates progress, and crushes costs.Wed, 29 Oct 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5sILotF4Jchttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5sILotF4JcOpen networks keynote at Lightspark Sync 2025.Fri, 24 Oct 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/true-disruption-is-rare/https://catalini.com/notes/true-disruption-is-rare/The Economist called disruption 'one of the most influential modern business ideas' — and yet the data stubbornly refuses to cooperate.Mon, 29 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/unwitting-kingmaker/https://catalini.com/writing/unwitting-kingmaker/How the GENIUS Act’s design could concentrate the stablecoin market — and how to stop it.Fri, 26 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/genius-act-break-of-gauge/https://catalini.com/notes/genius-act-break-of-gauge/Washington's stablecoin law promises competition in money movement, but a blind spot — interoperability — threatens to crown a single superpower instead.Fri, 26 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVwQIbdMAdEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVwQIbdMAdEStablecoins on Bitcoin via the Spark L2.Wed, 10 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/stripes-tempo-libras-ghost/https://catalini.com/writing/stripes-tempo-libras-ghost/Libra is crypto’s favorite ghost story. Stripe is betting the sequel, called Tempo, has a happier ending.Fri, 05 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/stripes-tempo-grand-bargain/https://catalini.com/notes/stripes-tempo-grand-bargain/An all-star team, state-of-the-art tech, impressive partners, and 'neutrality' — and the price is handing a fintech giant the keys to global payments. Déjà vu.Fri, 05 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://hbr.org/2025/09/does-bitcoin-belong-on-your-balance-sheethttps://hbr.org/2025/09/does-bitcoin-belong-on-your-balance-sheetA framework for deciding whether corporate treasuries should hold bitcoin.Mon, 01 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/substitute-or-augment-accounting/https://catalini.com/notes/substitute-or-augment-accounting/The entire story of AI and labor is about what we can — and can't — put a number on. Juniors get displaced first because their tasks are built to be measurable.Sun, 31 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/economists-puzzled-by-bitcoin/https://catalini.com/writing/economists-puzzled-by-bitcoin/See Bitcoin as “money‑as‑software” and the actual pattern snaps into focus.Wed, 20 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/rogoff-underestimating-bitcoin/https://catalini.com/notes/rogoff-underestimating-bitcoin/When one of the world's leading macroeconomists publicly apologizes for underestimating Bitcoin, it's worth paying attention.Wed, 20 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/crypto-scale-without-losing-soul/https://catalini.com/notes/crypto-scale-without-losing-soul/Stripe and Circle are both building their own chains. The question isn't speed or functionality — it's whether we're building an open protocol for money or branded rails.Tue, 12 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/stripes-secret-blockchain-paradox/https://catalini.com/notes/stripes-secret-blockchain-paradox/Stripe is building a high-performance blockchain called Tempo. Stablecoins promise to make crypto mainstream — and the same move could undercut what the technology set out to achieve.Tue, 12 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/stripe-blockchain-branded-rails/https://catalini.com/writing/stripe-blockchain-branded-rails/Can crypto go mainstream without losing its soul? Stripe’s Tempo will test whether openness can survive at scale.Mon, 11 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/africas-fx-drought/https://catalini.com/notes/africas-fx-drought/Dollars trickle in; ~$750bn of imports, ~$90bn in debt coupons, and ~$89bn in illicit flows suck them right back out. Stablecoins rewired the back-alley FX bazaar.Tue, 05 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.lightspark.com/news/insights/washingtons-new-stablecoin-lawhttps://www.lightspark.com/news/insights/washingtons-new-stablecoin-lawWhat free-banking history warns about the new U.S. stablecoin framework.Fri, 01 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/resume-back-propagated/https://catalini.com/notes/resume-back-propagated/When a bot's inner monologue is 'what leverage keeps me from being unplugged?', the code has graduated from Excel macros to strategy. Humans still thrive on unknown unknowns.Mon, 07 Jul 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/ai-taste-blank-cell-frontiers/https://catalini.com/notes/ai-taste-blank-cell-frontiers/'Agency' is the same unruly territory we mapped as unknown unknowns in HBR — the edge lives in the frontiers no metric dares to tread.Mon, 30 Jun 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/humans-evolutionary-generalists/https://catalini.com/notes/humans-evolutionary-generalists/We were selected to navigate half-drawn maps. We don't merely survive unknown unknowns — we thrive on them, and that resilience is our defining edge.Thu, 26 Jun 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/hybrid-corn-ai-adoption/https://catalini.com/notes/hybrid-corn-ai-adoption/In 1957, Zvi Griliches showed farmers tried hybrid corn on prime acres first. AI is running the same curve — only the corn is measurement, the fertilizer is GPUs, and the yield is your job.Mon, 23 Jun 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/no-sci-fi-upgrade-needed/https://catalini.com/notes/no-sci-fi-upgrade-needed/Even if progress stopped tomorrow, the disruption is already underway. Leaders need to understand which tasks are exposed — current models are enough.Thu, 19 Jun 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x__eVMD0auEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x__eVMD0auEOn payments, stablecoins, and open rails at the FBC Summit 2025.Wed, 04 Jun 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.lightspark.com/news/insights/can-crypto-go-mainstream-without-losing-its-soulhttps://www.lightspark.com/news/insights/can-crypto-go-mainstream-without-losing-its-soulOpenness versus convenience as crypto reaches mainstream scale.Sun, 01 Jun 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/what-gets-measured-ai-automates/https://catalini.com/writing/what-gets-measured-ai-automates/Measurability decides which work AI automates first — and where humans stay in the loop.Sun, 01 Jun 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/circles-choose-your-own-exit/https://catalini.com/notes/circles-choose-your-own-exit/IPO, a Coinbase buy, a Ripple bid, or the PayPal lane — four doors out, each with its own catch.Mon, 19 May 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/inference-grid/https://catalini.com/notes/inference-grid/A plug-and-play swap for the big models: smart routing trims the bill and lets you mix and match as many brains as you like — the skunkworks project bolted together at Lightspark on Spark.Fri, 16 May 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ao3QF22QGohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ao3QF22QGoForget Bitcoin — stablecoins are the real revolution in payments.Fri, 16 May 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/fresh-asphalt-needs-on-ramps/https://catalini.com/notes/fresh-asphalt-needs-on-ramps/Stablecoins are laying fresh asphalt for global payments, but they need great on/off-ramps to the old highways — bank and card rails — as well as consumer safeguards.Fri, 09 May 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/electricitys-playbook-stablecoin-wars/https://catalini.com/notes/electricitys-playbook-stablecoin-wars/Westinghouse locked in the marquee distribution deals and used cheaper, easier-to-scale AC to undercut Edison. Secure the gateways and keep fees low, and the stablecoin crown is yours.Sun, 04 May 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/crypto-adoption/https://catalini.com/writing/crypto-adoption/Build utility first, bridge old-and-new tech, execute flawlessly—why most crypto projects miss these basics and how getting them right will unlock mainstream adoption.Thu, 01 May 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/worldcoin-pivot-signals/https://catalini.com/notes/worldcoin-pivot-signals/The U.S. debut is noteworthy, but the real plot twist is Worldcoin's sprint toward the mainstream: build real utility first, then sweeten it with tokens.Thu, 01 May 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/edison-westinghouse-stablecoins/https://catalini.com/notes/edison-westinghouse-stablecoins/Seize distribution and scale into mainstream payments now — or watch regulators standardize the grid and turn every digital dollar into commodity electrons.Wed, 30 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/the-stablecoin-wars/https://catalini.com/writing/the-stablecoin-wars/Stablecoins are at a crossroads: either fade into bank plumbing or outrun incumbents and own the distribution. Who’s sprinting—and who risks being left behind?Tue, 29 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/the-stablecoin-wars-thread/https://catalini.com/notes/the-stablecoin-wars-thread/Stablecoins graduated from the playpen of crypto traders to the main stage of mainstream payments. The fight is on — mostly off-camera — against incumbents Tether and Circle.Tue, 29 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/dollar-hegemony-cryptos-moment/https://catalini.com/writing/dollar-hegemony-cryptos-moment/Trump’s aggressive tariff gamble threatens dollar dominance—will taxing the world cost America its greatest economic privilege, and could crypto emerge as the winner?Fri, 11 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/crypto-adoption-two-roads/https://catalini.com/notes/crypto-adoption-two-roads/Stablecoins and Bitcoin do the boring-but-effective B2B job behind the scenes while consumer crypto takes the other road — and the two will eventually run into each other.Thu, 10 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/what-keeps-a-currency-dominant/https://catalini.com/notes/what-keeps-a-currency-dominant/A currency's global dominance isn't just size or military might — it's trust, stability, and forward-looking strategy. What could the US have done better?Mon, 07 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oHIptk6KDohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oHIptk6KDoA U.S. strategy for Bitcoin and stablecoins, at the Bitcoin Policy Institute.Thu, 27 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/bitcoin-ultimate-libra-basket/https://catalini.com/notes/bitcoin-ultimate-libra-basket/No need to reboot Libra. We once believed we could engineer a flawless currency-weighting scheme — bold, elegant, and ultimately naïve.Sun, 09 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/trumps-strategic-bitcoin-reserve/https://catalini.com/writing/trumps-strategic-bitcoin-reserve/President Trump’s executive order carefully positions the U.S. to lead in digital assets without undermining the dollar’s global dominanceThu, 06 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/decentralization-theater/https://catalini.com/notes/decentralization-theater/Crypto's oldest magic trick: networks with puppet masters backstage imitating peer-to-peer systems to rake in cash. DINOs — decentralized in name only — are dressed-up databases.Mon, 03 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/slowly-then-suddenly-programmable-dollars/https://catalini.com/notes/slowly-then-suddenly-programmable-dollars/One day you're rummaging for paper bills; the next, your wallet is lines of code. Use cases are still niche, but each shows the growing value of open infrastructure.Thu, 27 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/first-principles-colossus/https://catalini.com/notes/first-principles-colossus/OpenAI's old edge was scale and talent. Then Colossus hit, built in record speed — nothing like an AI boom to make CEOs personally oversee the plumbing.Tue, 18 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/bitcoin-reserves-platform-play/https://catalini.com/writing/bitcoin-reserves-platform-play/Instead of merely stockpiling Bitcoin, the U.S. must overhaul its financial architecture to prepare for—and ultimately succeed in—open networks.Thu, 06 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/beyond-stockpiling-bitcoin/https://catalini.com/notes/beyond-stockpiling-bitcoin/Instead of merely stockpiling Bitcoin, the U.S. must overhaul its financial architecture for open networks — leveraging its most powerful asset: the dollar.Thu, 06 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/notes/strategy-not-speculation/https://catalini.com/notes/strategy-not-speculation/The best way for the U.S. to lower its debt-to-GDP ratio isn't speculation — it's fiscal discipline and economic growth. Reserve currencies fall from mismanagement and overextension.Tue, 04 Feb 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/internet-of-money-wants-to-be-free/https://catalini.com/writing/internet-of-money-wants-to-be-free/Today, Coinbase unveiled a bold new white paper, proposing permissionless networks as the key to transforming payments, finance, and beyond.Thu, 16 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/bitcoin-strategic-reserve-a16z/https://catalini.com/writing/bitcoin-strategic-reserve-a16z/Weighing the case for a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve.Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/crypto-scarcity-ai-abundance/https://catalini.com/writing/crypto-scarcity-ai-abundance/In a world overflowing with AI-generated content and AI agents, can crypto step in to bring back trust, authenticity, and scarcity?Thu, 19 Dec 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/decentralizing-ai/https://catalini.com/writing/decentralizing-ai/The latest crypto narrative positions it as the future backbone of AI. But how much of the hype holds up to scrutiny?Tue, 26 Nov 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/everyone-wrong-about-stablecoins/https://catalini.com/writing/everyone-wrong-about-stablecoins/Why stablecoins won’t crown a single winner: success requires a complementary business model, not just exporting digital dollars.Fri, 01 Nov 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/crypto-regulation-us-election-trump-bitcoin-boosterism-gives-harris-an-opening-by-christian-catalini-1-et-al-2024-09https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/crypto-regulation-us-election-trump-bitcoin-boosterism-gives-harris-an-opening-by-christian-catalini-1-et-al-2024-09Crypto regulation should reward building real utility, not speculation.Sun, 01 Sep 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/sec-attack-nfts/https://catalini.com/writing/sec-attack-nfts/The SEC’s regulation by enforcement stifles innovation, undermines creators, and risks leaving the U.S. trailing in the race to shape the future of digital platforms.Thu, 29 Aug 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/big-tech-content-moderation/https://catalini.com/writing/big-tech-content-moderation/As the battle over content moderation escalates, digital platforms and government mandates are failing. The solution is open protocols and community-driven fact-checking.Wed, 28 Aug 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0krKPgXSB0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0krKPgXSB0Conversation at Bitcoin Nashville.Tue, 06 Aug 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/race-to-dominate-stablecoins/https://catalini.com/writing/race-to-dominate-stablecoins/The competitive dynamics deciding who wins the stablecoin market.Thu, 01 Aug 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fcjmhK1Rum0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fcjmhK1Rum0On the academic research behind blockchain economics.Wed, 31 Jul 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/s/2-ARE-STABLECOINS-WINNER-TAKE-ALL-Christian-Catalini-Jai-Massari.pdfhttps://catalini.com/s/2-ARE-STABLECOINS-WINNER-TAKE-ALL-Christian-Catalini-Jai-Massari.pdfWhether network effects make the stablecoin market tip to a single winner.Mon, 15 Jul 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/forget-antitrust/https://catalini.com/writing/forget-antitrust/Big tech will not be tamed by lawsuits, fines or draconian rules, but by the same forces that fueled its rise.Thu, 18 Apr 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sRIjZA3FBUhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sRIjZA3FBULightning-network payments and the lessons Libra taught.Fri, 01 Mar 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/cryptos-killer-app/https://catalini.com/writing/cryptos-killer-app/After more than a decade of infrastructure building, crypto is at a turning point, and might soon find its ChatGPT moment.Mon, 19 Feb 2024 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8KGTsPVkBkhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8KGTsPVkBkConference talk on what it takes to turn Bitcoin and Lightning into real global payment rails.Sat, 07 Oct 2023 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKLMMGteysQhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKLMMGteysQA long-form conversation on building Lightspark and making Bitcoin useful for payments.Sun, 09 Jul 2023 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_WtszjAYdYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_WtszjAYdYIntroducing Lightspark from the Bitcoin 2023 main stage.Wed, 14 Jun 2023 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.lightspark.com/news/insights/the-hidden-breakthrough-behind-bitcoinhttps://www.lightspark.com/news/insights/the-hidden-breakthrough-behind-bitcoinThe economic breakthrough underneath bitcoin’s design.Thu, 01 Jun 2023 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/crypto-prices-mean-anything/https://catalini.com/writing/crypto-prices-mean-anything/What crypto asset prices do — and don’t — tell us about underlying value.Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2R0HsqCTZYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2R0HsqCTZYLecture on how digital money reshapes competition.Thu, 10 Nov 2022 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrBEMSINCu8https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrBEMSINCu8Philadelphia Fed fintech conference panel.Wed, 17 Aug 2022 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EONvAsjcPZkhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EONvAsjcPZkPanel on stablecoins' role in the financial system.Wed, 11 May 2022 00:00:00 GMThttps://hbr.org/2022/05/how-digital-currencies-can-help-small-businesseshttps://hbr.org/2022/05/how-digital-currencies-can-help-small-businessesCheaper, faster payment rails as a lifeline for small-business margins.Sun, 01 May 2022 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/s/Can-Web3-Bring-Back-Competition-to-Digital-Platforms.pdfhttps://catalini.com/s/Can-Web3-Bring-Back-Competition-to-Digital-Platforms.pdfWhether portable, user-owned assets can restore contestability to platform markets.Mon, 07 Mar 2022 00:00:00 GMThttps://hbr.org/2021/08/stablecoins-and-the-future-of-moneyhttps://hbr.org/2021/08/stablecoins-and-the-future-of-moneyWhy stablecoins matter, how they should be regulated, and what they mean for the future of money.Tue, 10 Aug 2021 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Imh3W-AHHw0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Imh3W-AHHw0Hour-long seminar spanning cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, Diem, and CBDCs.Wed, 28 Jul 2021 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIjprspOFv0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIjprspOFv0Frontier Dialogue on digital money, from stablecoins to CBDCs.Mon, 05 Jul 2021 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.americanbanker.com/opinion/its-time-to-knock-down-the-walled-gardens-of-the-payments-systemhttps://www.americanbanker.com/opinion/its-time-to-knock-down-the-walled-gardens-of-the-payments-systemThe case for open, interoperable payment rails over closed networks.Tue, 01 Jun 2021 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.theregreview.org/2021/05/10/massari-catalini-defi-disintermediation-regulatory-path-ahead/https://www.theregreview.org/2021/05/10/massari-catalini-defi-disintermediation-regulatory-path-ahead/How regulators should approach decentralized finance and disintermediation.Mon, 10 May 2021 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jObqbcIZegYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jObqbcIZegYOMFIF Digital Monetary Institute conversation on the future of digital money.Thu, 29 Apr 2021 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIV2yYmN2CYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIV2yYmN2CYCNBC's report on Libra's evolution into Diem — with the project's co-creator on where it went and why.Wed, 28 Apr 2021 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RdeJSCm-lAhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RdeJSCm-lAOn CNBC: Diem's phased launch strategy.Tue, 20 Apr 2021 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/bitcoin-and-new-digital-ledger-applications-by-christian-catalini-et-al-2021-04https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/bitcoin-and-new-digital-ledger-applications-by-christian-catalini-et-al-2021-04Digital ledgers beyond bitcoin: what the technology is actually good for.Thu, 01 Apr 2021 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FJPgVdF5kYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FJPgVdF5kYA 40-minute talk on blockchain as trust infrastructure.Thu, 24 Dec 2020 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-nzAufS7Xshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-nzAufS7XsFed panel on cryptocurrencies and CBDCs.Thu, 19 Nov 2020 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGRZ7tEUiFghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGRZ7tEUiFgThe redesigned Libra 2.0, explained at the Crypto Economics Security Conference.Thu, 16 Jul 2020 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ex8JVqmLJpwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ex8JVqmLJpwLibra, cryptocurrency, and blockchain — the design and the regulatory reckoning.Mon, 18 Nov 2019 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wd0eXDWl7WAhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wd0eXDWl7WAConference talk on the economic design of Libra.Thu, 14 Nov 2019 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlBHOdraRzghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlBHOdraRzgBreaking down Libra: the economics behind the design.Thu, 07 Nov 2019 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiEx-hD9mBMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiEx-hD9mBMLaura Shin's Unchained, episode 144 — the economics of Libra and what Facebook stood to gain.Tue, 05 Nov 2019 00:00:00 GMThttps://en.globes.co.il/en/article-facebook-will-be-unable-to-control-libra-1001303874https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-facebook-will-be-unable-to-control-libra-1001303874Why Libra’s design points toward decentralization rather than corporate control.Thu, 01 Aug 2019 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjWlXl-vGUchttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjWlXl-vGUcSome Simple Economics of the Blockchain: verification costs and networking costs.Mon, 25 Jun 2018 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwhAYBPxN_Yhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwhAYBPxN_YEarly panel on ICOs and crypto capital formation.Mon, 23 Apr 2018 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjMVaGtCvNchttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjMVaGtCvNcBlockchain explained for a general audience.Mon, 19 Mar 2018 00:00:00 GMThttps://catalini.com/writing/blockchain-good-for-competition/https://catalini.com/writing/blockchain-good-for-competition/Permissionless blockchains have the potential to increase competition, privacy and innovation in digital platforms.Mon, 30 Oct 2017 00:00:00 GMThttps://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/seeing-beyond-the-blockchain-hype/https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/seeing-beyond-the-blockchain-hype/Separating durable economics from noise in the first blockchain wave.Mon, 27 Mar 2017 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwjvlgR-kyYhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwjvlgR-kyYThe MIT Digital Currency Experiment research, presented at HBS.Fri, 21 Oct 2016 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1VDahmcIBg&t=1108shttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1VDahmcIBg&t=1108sThe MIT Digital Currency Experiment: giving every MIT undergraduate access to Bitcoin in 2014.Mon, 26 Sep 2016 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvFRECHncUchttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvFRECHncUcResearch brief on negative citations in science.Fri, 25 Mar 2016 00:00:00 GMThttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjtW_fq-rB8https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjtW_fq-rB8Research brief on equity-crowdfunding syndicates.Thu, 13 Aug 2015 00:00:00 GMT