NOTES / 2025.11.17 · 4-post thread · 8 likes
Where the Gold–Bitcoin Analogy Ends
Both are scarce assets whose value rests on social consensus — but unlike gold, Bitcoin has yet to earn the low-correlation role of a crisis hedge.
FIG. 01 — FROM THE ORIGINAL THREAD
Gold and Bitcoin are scarce assets whose value rests on social consensus. Gold trades on a store-of-value premium: central banks & investors set the clearing price, and its non-monetary uses (electronics, dentistry, jewelry) act as the backstop.
But that’s also where the similarities between Bitcoin and gold end. Unlike gold—which has tended to show low or negative correlation with the S&P 500 in downturns—Bitcoin has behaved like a liquidity‑sensitive, high‑beta risk asset.
Bitcoin sold off with tech during the 2021–22 tightening and didn’t rally through the largest inflation shock in four decades. That argues against the simple “digital gold” or “inflation hedge” labels some of its proponents fiercely defend…
…and ultimately calls for a much more nuanced explanation. Discover it @HarvardBiz: hbr.org
Originally published as a thread on X.