When Early Adopters Don’t Adopt

In the paper, we exploit the randomized timing of our distribution to study a core, but untested question in diffusion theory: Does the sequence of adoption among user types - natural early adopters versus not - have an impact on the ultimate potential of a technology? Whereas S-curves are one of the most robust findings about innovation diffusion in the social sciences, multiple theories have been proposed to explain them. Our results highlight a previously undocumented negative spillover from early adopters to others that emerges when the “natural” order of adoption is subverted: When natural early adopters (NEAs) are randomly delayed relative to their peers, they are twice as likely to abandon the technology. The effect is social in nature, and possibly tied to the utility NEAs derive from early, exclusive access, and to their role as technology gatekeepers within their communities. Abandonment by NEAs has also striking repercussions on others, and leads to 45% less active use of the technology within dorms where an above the median share of NEAs was randomly delayed. The findings have implications for how firms introduce new products into the market, and shows that there might be additional reasons - beyond logistical or technical constraints - for limiting the initial availability of a new product to natural early adopters. The paper was awarded a NET Institute Grant and featured on the cover of Science.